Dear Harris Supporters,
I write to you because you should be applauded. I also write to provide genuine analysis before the narrative is taken over by other entities, especially the media.
I have crunched some of the numbers. Given top-line numbers, I can conclude that this was a vote against Biden’s foreign policy more so than a vote for Trump. Trump essentially got the same numbers of votes as he did in 2020 (it is a +0.1% change). Harris, at approximately 70 million votes, did not beat him or Biden’s numbers of 81 million votes. One held onto the base and the other did not. Trump’s base appears to be younger with some increase in POCs. It is still less female and less educated. Harris’ appears to have held onto the crossover votes of moderates and Republicans, who this time are more ideologically conservative and older. These mere shifts may not matter much since it is just a reshuffling as more people enter the registration pool.
And of course, other factors were at play. For some, voting for a white male is still preferable to voting for a female, never mind a biracial female. Even though Harris bested Clinton, I suspect some racial animus is alive and well. This would require more analysis, and I don’t know that I would do it or that it matters. It plays out every single day in this nation. Another factor at play was incumbency. Voter turnout was low in many states, and in general. Voting for a president’s second term is not as exciting, and with incumbency usually being beneficial, some may have taken it for granted. Again, needs more analysis but may not even be worth doing.
The more significant factor is the media. Not only did they fail to do their jobs, but this time they actively and unabashedly went for the ratings. There were few endorsements from major papers and a failure to call things out. The Philadelphia Inquirer was publishing stories that the New York Times refused to do. The WSJ made an endorsement while the Washington Post and LA Times stayed silent. All forms of media picked up the “Joe Biden is too old” narrative that the GOP had been peddling since 2023. They ran with it like a thief with money. Then the DNC did. They lost faith when they had no legitimate reason to do so. Lesson, never count Biden out. I knew Summer 2019 that he would win the primary and presidency, even though he was fourth on my list of preferences. Secretary Castro was first. Harris was near the bottom with Klobuchar and Buttigieig as they seemed the most conservative to me. I had more confidence in a second Biden win than in a first Harris win. Congratulations to the media for getting those ratings, and shame on you! A piece of advice, shut off the TV and subscribe to good local papers. Better yet, read a book on history or economics.
Regarding this loss of the base, Harris certainly lost Progressives, Union Members and the Anti-War Faction, in particular those who strongly opposed Biden’s policy in the Middle East. In March, a majority of Americans (52%) opposed this policy, and it crossed party lines. In the summer, it increased to 61%. This was reflected in the primaries with large numbers of uncommitted here and in other states (MI, WI, OH, etc). At the convention, it was not up for discussion. A failure to put this on the table to re-examine was a huge misstep. With this being Harris’ first campaign, there was probably fear at rocking the boat. A Biden campaign could have had other approaches as the author of the policy. For whom this was the fundamental issue, there was nothing. The reaction was a third party vote or no vote at all. Eleven million people did not vote for Trump or Harris. It had nothing to do with the red herrings of economy, crime or immigration.
There are some small silver lining(s). The boogeyman of voter fraud goes back into the closet. Is the GOP going to claim fraud after their wins? Many think thanks along the political spectrum have concluded it is negligible. When it does occur, the voter has multiple residencies. Another, we have been here before, and Governor Healey was battle tested during the 2016 administration as were other AGs and Governors. Another, we have and can take back the Congress to leverage it against the other two branches. Another, we can learn from our mistakes, and re-examine our foreign policy and reaction to the media so that we choose better next time.
It won’t be easy; 2016 to 2020 was a long haul! However, there are still more of us, and that means no honeymoon and no mandate. We resist. We fight. We boycott. We protest. We vote. We make allies. We stick together. We don’t give up. We move onward and forward.
Rita Colafella
Watertown Resident
Your observation about a protest vote against Biden’s Mideast policy is accurate. It’s ironic that it helped Trump, whose policy will be so much worse. Progressives make this mistake over and over again…witness Ralph Nader in 2000 and Jill Stein in 2016. Insanity is repeating the same thing over and over again expecting a different result!
The ongoing conflict was on some voters’ minds as was prices and the feeling of leaving the working calss behind. See the update below.
I don’t understand why we Harris supporters should be applauded, and AFAIK there is approximately zero basis to conclude that this was a vote against Biden’s foreign policy, specifically. That theory would require the incumbent parties in almost every industrialized country all to have coincidentally lost for completely separate reasons (?!?). Seems likelier to me that people really hated inflation, which has come down a lot but people don’t experience memories of lower prices on convenient 12-month reporting cycles.
We should all avoid the temptation to conclude “if only Harris had agreed more with me personally, she obviously would have won.”
They should be applauded for trying. Pivoting when the race is more than half over, is hard. The protest against Biden’s foreign policy concerning the Israel-Gaza conflict was a salient point during the primary as 1/10 Democratic primary voters voted uncommitted, no preference or something to that effect, and then stated wanting an end to the conflict.
What percentage of the protest the conflict played in the general election, I don’t know yet. However, analysis coming out now is pointing to the Biden’s foreign policy being a top issue for the protest vote. Your are right that prices also were a top issue for the protest vote. However, I wouldn’t call it inflation, because inflation is caused by supply issues or too much demand. What many economists are noting over the past few months is that we are seeing is price gouging.
The changing mid-stream to Harris put her in a position where rocking the boat would be problematic and distancing herself from Biden would not be enough. I think Biden could have gone more on the offensive. Also, changing more than half through doesn’t allow for another selection process. Some people who voted in protest mentioned her being selected instead of voted upon. The alternative would have been a contested convention which is hard to manage. Continuing with Biden would not have produced such a situation.
Then there is Harris’ policy. Harris is more conservative than Biden on certain items, in particular her economics. When I listened to her convention speech, for me, her economics policy did not do enough for the majority of Americans. Some protest voters have noted this move to the center or right. Some have even noted her not being as Pro Union as Biden. In my mind, pro union can be interchangeable with progressive. Regardless, I voted for her and would do so again.
In the end, I want Harris supporters to know that Trump won because he held onto his base. Our base is much wider and has more points on the political spectrum.
I agree with you Paul.
The key understanding is, “Eleven million people did not vote for Trump or Harris. It had nothing to do with the red herrings of economy, crime or immigration. ”
You have to look at why these people did not vote. Also, AOC asked why many of her supporters voted for both her and DJT. The feedback is telling. People don’t know how to make well reasoned decisions. This is the important work we need to focus on. I hope to see and hear about lessons on decision-making. How do we recognize truth from fiction. How to not vote on emotion. How to recognize when someone is playing us with the hate card. Doing research etc.
When people are being emotionally manipulated, they will make poor choices. It happens to all sides. We may lose democracy and the rue of law in the next few years. We may have lost it already.
UPDATE: More analysis has been performed by several papers/news sites (USA Today, WSJ, Newsweek, PBS, for example)
– Trump only got 1% above his 2020 numbers, Harris’ were about 11.5% less than those of Biden
– Both Trump and Harris got about 30% of eligible votes, in 2020 trump got about 35% while Biden captured about 40%
– Trump won by 2 points, not a landslide as LBJ, Nixon (72) and Reagan (84) won by 60, 60 and 58 points, respectively
– 1/6 registered Democrat did not vote
-1/10 ballota were split; voter voted Trump and then blue down the ballot or Harris and then red down the ballot or 3rd party/write-in and blue or red down the ballot (I have found info on the number of blanks for president)
– most common reasons for a protest vote the continuing Israel-Gaza conflict, not being Pro Union enough, ignoring the working class, being too woke, being too neo -liberal/appeals to the right, prices
According to Francis Ford Coppola, the framers of the US Constitution emphatically rejected the idea of modeling their new government on a monarchy, and instead used the democratic republic of early Rome as a model…
The framers apparently forgot that the Roman republic they admired was eventually captured by an oligarchy that rejected responsibility to serve the common good, and amassed more and more money and power unto themselves while the majority of Rome grew poorer and poorer. Eventually Rome decided to crown one of those oligarchs Emperor. And thus ended the Republic.
Coppola means his new Rome- and modern America-inspired movie “Megalopolis” to be a warning to us all.
Harris’s and the Democratic partys reason for losing went deeper than the situation in the Middle East, the economy and immigration. Being “woke” was just one more nail in her and her partys coffin.
People… moderates and even Dem’s, got sick and tired of having political correctness, acceptance (or else), twisting long held definitions around in order to suit an agenda constantly shoved in their faces and forced upon them against their will.
Trump didn’t start the anti-woke, politically incorrect backlash. It was brewing for years, he saw it, capitalized on it with voters and it worked for him.
Just look at what happened with Seth Moulton. His own party doubled down, threw him under the bus, demanded that he apologize, be recalled all because he didn’t pass the purity test.
Drag Queen story hour, biological males playing in biological female sports, DEI, Ze/Zir/Zem, “Chestfeeding”, “Birthing Parents”, sanctuary cities, changing the names of streets and buildings because the person they were named after had some connection to slavery 200 years ago, changing school mascots and names, “Indigenous Peoples Day”, reparations, using “Black” as opposed to black (while white remains uncapitalized), “Latinx” in place of Latino (even the Latinos were furious about that one), “houseless” in place of homeless, “undocumented” in place of illegal alien, cancel culture, etc and the list goes on.
There are those that will respond that the push back and resistance amounts to hateful divisive language, if that’s the case referring to those that object to the current Newspeak as Nazis, fascists and racists simply because they disagree and they’re not buying it is equally divisive.
The Democratic party has been disconnected with reality and living in an alternate universe for some time, and now that the chickens have come home to roost, they’re paying for it.
Republicans and Conservatives didn’t elect Donald Trump… Democrats, Liberals and Progressives did.