Dear Harris Supporters,
I write to you because you should be applauded. I also write to provide genuine analysis before the narrative is taken over by other entities, especially the media.
I have crunched some of the numbers. Given top-line numbers, I can conclude that this was a vote against Biden’s foreign policy more so than a vote for Trump. Trump essentially got the same numbers of votes as he did in 2020 (it is a +0.1% change). Harris, at approximately 70 million votes, did not beat him or Biden’s numbers of 81 million votes. One held onto the base and the other did not. Trump’s base appears to be younger with some increase in POCs. It is still less female and less educated. Harris’ appears to have held onto the crossover votes of moderates and Republicans, who this time are more ideologically conservative and older. These mere shifts may not matter much since it is just a reshuffling as more people enter the registration pool.
And of course, other factors were at play. For some, voting for a white male is still preferable to voting for a female, never mind a biracial female. Even though Harris bested Clinton, I suspect some racial animus is alive and well. This would require more analysis, and I don’t know that I would do it or that it matters. It plays out every single day in this nation. Another factor at play was incumbency. Voter turnout was low in many states, and in general. Voting for a president’s second term is not as exciting, and with incumbency usually being beneficial, some may have taken it for granted. Again, needs more analysis but may not even be worth doing.
The more significant factor is the media. Not only did they fail to do their jobs, but this time they actively and unabashedly went for the ratings. There were few endorsements from major papers and a failure to call things out. The Philadelphia Inquirer was publishing stories that the New York Times refused to do. The WSJ made an endorsement while the Washington Post and LA Times stayed silent. All forms of media picked up the “Joe Biden is too old” narrative that the GOP had been peddling since 2023. They ran with it like a thief with money. Then the DNC did. They lost faith when they had no legitimate reason to do so. Lesson, never count Biden out. I knew Summer 2019 that he would win the primary and presidency, even though he was fourth on my list of preferences. Secretary Castro was first. Harris was near the bottom with Klobuchar and Buttigieig as they seemed the most conservative to me. I had more confidence in a second Biden win than in a first Harris win. Congratulations to the media for getting those ratings, and shame on you! A piece of advice, shut off the TV and subscribe to good local papers. Better yet, read a book on history or economics.
Regarding this loss of the base, Harris certainly lost Progressives, Union Members and the Anti-War Faction, in particular those who strongly opposed Biden’s policy in the Middle East. In March, a majority of Americans (52%) opposed this policy, and it crossed party lines. In the summer, it increased to 61%. This was reflected in the primaries with large numbers of uncommitted here and in other states (MI, WI, OH, etc). At the convention, it was not up for discussion. A failure to put this on the table to re-examine was a huge misstep. With this being Harris’ first campaign, there was probably fear at rocking the boat. A Biden campaign could have had other approaches as the author of the policy. For whom this was the fundamental issue, there was nothing. The reaction was a third party vote or no vote at all. Eleven million people did not vote for Trump or Harris. It had nothing to do with the red herrings of economy, crime or immigration.
There are some small silver lining(s). The boogeyman of voter fraud goes back into the closet. Is the GOP going to claim fraud after their wins? Many think thanks along the political spectrum have concluded it is negligible. When it does occur, the voter has multiple residencies. Another, we have been here before, and Governor Healey was battle tested during the 2016 administration as were other AGs and Governors. Another, we have and can take back the Congress to leverage it against the other two branches. Another, we can learn from our mistakes, and re-examine our foreign policy and reaction to the media so that we choose better next time.
It won’t be easy; 2016 to 2020 was a long haul! However, there are still more of us, and that means no honeymoon and no mandate. We resist. We fight. We boycott. We protest. We vote. We make allies. We stick together. We don’t give up. We move onward and forward.
Rita Colafella
Watertown Resident
Your observation about a protest vote against Biden’s Mideast policy is accurate. It’s ironic that it helped Trump, whose policy will be so much worse. Progressives make this mistake over and over again…witness Ralph Nader in 2000 and Jill Stein in 2016. Insanity is repeating the same thing over and over again expecting a different result!
I don’t understand why we Harris supporters should be applauded, and AFAIK there is approximately zero basis to conclude that this was a vote against Biden’s foreign policy, specifically. That theory would require the incumbent parties in almost every industrialized country all to have coincidentally lost for completely separate reasons (?!?). Seems likelier to me that people really hated inflation, which has come down a lot but people don’t experience memories of lower prices on convenient 12-month reporting cycles.
We should all avoid the temptation to conclude “if only Harris had agreed more with me personally, she obviously would have won.”